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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model