Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(14:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model