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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 28 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP