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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(:17) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to SEA 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP