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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NE
53.2%
DEN
46.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Brock Osweiler (DEN) +0.187 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.263 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Justin Coleman CB Out Hand
Julian Edelman WR Out Foot
Jamie Collins LB Doubtful Illness
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring
Michael Williams TE Questionable Knee
Alan Branch DT Probable Elbow
Marcus Cannon T Probable Toe
Tre' Jackson G Probable Knee
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen

DEN

Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Evan Mathis G Questionable Ankle
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Virgil Green TE Probable Finger
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Matt Paradis C Probable Finger
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Ankle
Michael Schofield T Probable Finger
Antonio Smith DE Probable Hip
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
DEN 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:32 TD NE (11:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 10:45 TD NE (10:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-S.Chandler for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – DEN 0
  • Q2 02:15 TD DEN (2:15) 23-R.Hillman right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – DEN 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 38-B.Bolden for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – DEN 7
  • Q4 12:44 TD DEN (12:44) 22-C.Anderson left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – DEN 13
  • Q4 06:12 FG DEN (6:12) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NE 21 – DEN 17
  • Q4 01:15 TD DEN (1:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 12-A.Caldwell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:04 FG NE (:04) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 24 – DEN 24
  • Q5 12:42 TD DEN (12:42) 22-C.Anderson left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – DEN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 25 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-85-V.Green.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper pushed ob at NE 49 for 10 yards (85-V.Green).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (8:18) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to DEN 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 71%

    (4:11) 17-B.Osweiler up the middle to NE 29 for 3 yards (96-S.Siliga).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 67%

    (1:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (13:33) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-21-A.Talib, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:33) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NE 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper to NE 24 for 7 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:00) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 23 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (:05) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.LaFell.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (12:01) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to DEN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (7:01) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 22%

    (5:21) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to DEN 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-31-O.Bolden.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 23%

    (1:40) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-P.Chung to NE 35 for 4 yards (30-D.Bruton).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to NE 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-48-S.Barrett at NE 36. 48-S.Barrett to NE 36 for no gain (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:07) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 31-O.Bolden MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 45. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 45 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (6:12) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:48) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to DEN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 37 for 2 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to NE 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-85-V.Green.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%

    (2:39) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.