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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 32
Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(4:11) 17-B.Osweiler up the middle to NE 29 for 3 yards (96-S.Siliga).
The Three Options
GO
+2.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.04 EP
- 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP
KICK
+1.17 EP
- 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
