Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 78

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 25 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-85-V.Green.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.74 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model