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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 53

New England Patriots 21 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP