Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 80

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to NE 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-48-S.Barrett at NE 36. 48-S.Barrett to NE 36 for no gain (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model