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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 42

New England Patriots 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-21-A.Talib, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP