Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 62

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 7

(:05) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.LaFell.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

What Happened

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.24 EP
46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -1.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP