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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 85

New England Patriots 21 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to DEN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 37 for 2 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model