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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 49

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to DEN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model