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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 80

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-P.Chung to NE 35 for 4 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model