Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to NE: Andrew Luck (IND) -0.044 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.350 EPA/dropback (IND starting Andrew Luck in place of Matt Hasselbeck)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- IND defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- IND on 3 more days rest than NE
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
NE
IND
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:21 TD IND (7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 0 – IND 6
- Q1 02:56 TD NE (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – IND 7
- Q2 13:53 FG NE (13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – IND 7
- Q2 11:37 TD IND (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – IND 13
- Q2 09:42 TD NE (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – IND 14
- Q2 02:45 TD IND (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Easley]. NE 17 – IND 20
- Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – IND 21
- Q3 11:04 TD NE (11:04) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – IND 21
- Q4 12:56 TD NE (12:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-L.Blount for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – IND 21
- Q4 01:26 TD IND (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 17-G.Whalen for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 34 – IND 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%
(7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
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Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(1:59) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to NE 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to IND 48 for 36 yards (32-C.Anderson). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%
(13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 24%
(11:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%
(1:46) (Run formation) 11-J.Edelman right tackle to IND 34 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson).
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Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 71%
(10:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to NE 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:54) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to IND 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q3 IND 4th & 19 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(5:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 60%
(4:08) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to IND 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 35 for 8 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-27-W.Guy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 29.
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Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(1:14) (Punt formation) 32-C.Anderson up the middle to IND 36 for -1 yards (38-B.Bolden). Penalty on IND, Illegal Formation, declined.
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Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:37) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to NE 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to NE 43 for 11 yards (45-M.Overton). PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EPp(convert) 74%
(9:34) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.
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Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 36 yards to NE 41, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.
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Q4 NE 4th & 19 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:19) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to IND 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 16 for 5 yards (36-B.King).
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 28 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%
(3:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton.
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Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 57%
(3:13) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-G.Whalen to IND 33 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on IND-35-J.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.