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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 36

New England Patriots 17 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Run formation) 11-J.Edelman right tackle to IND 34 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model