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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 56

New England Patriots 27 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to IND 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model