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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP