Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to NE 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Edelman to NE 43 for 11 yards (45-M.Overton). PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model