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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to NE 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model