Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 34

(6:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 36 yards to NE 41, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model