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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to NE 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP