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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 22

New England Patriots 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model