4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.08 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model