4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Thursday 2015-10-15 · 20:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

ATL
67.9%
NO
32.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ATL 27
–
NO 22
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ATL

Justin Durant LB Out Elbow
Mike Person C Out Ankle
Devonta Freeman RB Probable Toe
Leonard Hankerson WR Probable Ribs
Julio Jones WR Probable Toe

NO

Tim Lelito G Out Shoulder
Thomas Morstead P Out right Quadricep
Damian Swann CB Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Doubtful Knee
Marques Colston WR Doubtful Shoulder
Bobby Richardson DE Questionable Hip
John Jenkins DT Probable Elbow
Keenan Lewis CB Probable Hip
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee
Jahri Evans G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 21
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 TD NO (9:50) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 02:13 TD NO (2:13) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 56-M.Mauti, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-56-M.Mauti at ATL 4. 56-M.Mauti for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NO 13
  • Q2 14:17 TD ATL (14:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 0 ATL 6 – NO 14
  • Q3 07:23 FG NO (7:23) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. ATL 7 – NO 17
  • Q3 02:27 TD NO (2:27) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 ATL 7 – NO 23
  • Q4 13:14 TD ATL (13:14) 24-D.Freeman left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NO 24
  • Q4 08:07 TD NO (8:07) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – NO 30
  • Q4 01:34 TD ATL (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 9 ATL 20 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 68%

    (6:14) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, and recovers at NO 39. 2-M.Ryan to NO 39 for no gain (44-H.Kikaha; 94-C.Jordan).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:30) 4-B.Fields punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:13) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 56-M.Mauti, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-56-M.Mauti at ATL 4. 56-M.Mauti for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:27) 4-B.Fields punts 37 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 10 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:42) 4-B.Fields punts 57 yards to ATL 25, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 36 for 11 yards (33-J.Sanford). PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%

    (:21) 2-Z.Hocker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (7:23) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 23-M.Murphy to NO 37 for 6 yards (14-E.Weems).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:27) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (14:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 83-J.Tamme to NO 29 for 20 yards (39-B.Browner). Pass 17, YAC 3

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (4:02) 2-Z.Hocker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman ran ob at NO 34 for 6 yards (50-S.Anthony). Pass 2, YAC 4

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 13 for 16 yards (31-J.Byrd). Pass 14, YAC 2

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%

    (:31) 4-B.Fields punts 27 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.