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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 2-M.Ryan FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, and recovers at NO 39. 2-M.Ryan to NO 39 for no gain (44-H.Kikaha; 94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model