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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman ran ob at NO 34 for 6 yards (50-S.Anthony). Pass 2, YAC 4

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model