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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 31 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-B.Fields punts 27 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP