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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(14:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 83-J.Tamme to NO 29 for 20 yards (39-B.Browner). Pass 17, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model