Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 84

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(2:13) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 56-M.Mauti, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by NO-56-M.Mauti at ATL 4. 56-M.Mauti for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model