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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:21) 2-Z.Hocker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model