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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 4-B.Fields punts 37 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 10 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model