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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP