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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 31 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 2-Z.Hocker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model