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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Thursday 2015-10-08 · 20:25 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

IND
51.7%
HOU
48.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Ryan Mallett (HOU): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Jerrell Freeman LB Out Groin
Tyler Varga RB Out Concussion
Bjoern Werner LB Out Hamstring
Vontae Davis CB Questionable Foot
Mike Adams S Questionable Neck
Matt Hasselbeck QB Questionable Illness
Henry Anderson DT Questionable Foot
Andrew Luck QB Questionable right Shoulder
Dwayne Allen TE Probable Ankle
Frank Gore RB Probable Foot
Kendall Langford DE Probable Back
Gregory Toler CB Probable Neck

HOU

Quintin Demps S Out Hamstring
Akeem Dent LB Out Hamstring
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Hamstring
Cecil Shorts WR Out Shoulder
Nate Washington WR Out Hamstring
Whitney Mercilus LB Questionable Thigh
Lonnie Ballentine S Questionable Knee
Chris Polk RB Questionable Knee
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Brian Cushing LB Probable Foot
Ryan Mallett QB Probable Chest
Derek Newton T Probable Ankle
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Calf
Vince Wilfork DT Probable Ankle
Duane Brown T Probable Hand
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Shoulder
Arian Foster RB Probable Groin
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Hip
Eddie Pleasant S Probable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 27
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:32 FG IND (6:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 01:27 TD IND (1:27) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 81-A.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – HOU 0
  • Q2 07:41 FG IND (7:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 02:12 FG HOU (2:12) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. IND 13 – HOU 3
  • Q2 00:01 TD HOU (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle to 11-J.Strong for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 9
  • Q3 13:06 TD IND (13:06) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – HOU 10
  • Q3 04:08 TD HOU (4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 11-J.Strong for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 16
  • Q4 10:31 TD IND (10:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 81-A.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – HOU 17
  • Q4 06:11 FG HOU (6:11) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. IND 27 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 77%

    (6:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-G.Whalen pushed ob at IND 35 for 3 yards (46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at IND 35.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:48) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to IND 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 44%

    (10:57) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 81-A.Johnson pushed ob at HOU 34 for 10 yards (30-K.Johnson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 86%

    (7:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (2:12) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:32) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to HOU 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 45 for 36 yards (84-J.Doyle). PENALTY on HOU-20-J.Rolle, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 9.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle to 11-J.Strong for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-G.Whalen to IND 37 for 13 yards (45-J.Prosch; 53-M.Bullough).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to HOU 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (6:11) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to HOU 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 36 for 11 yards (55-N.Irving).