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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model