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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 31

Houston Texans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model