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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 42

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle to 11-J.Strong for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP