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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 18

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model