Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 79

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(10:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-G.Whalen to IND 37 for 13 yards (45-J.Prosch; 53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model