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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to HOU 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP