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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to IND 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP