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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model