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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 81-A.Johnson pushed ob at HOU 34 for 10 yards (30-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model