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St. Louis Rams

2-2 HC Jeff Fisher
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Arizona Cardinals

3-1 HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 16:25 ET University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

STL
10.9%
ARI
89.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.250 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.438 vs Nick Foles (LA) -0.123 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

STL 14 7–21
–
ARI 33 26–40
Projected margin: ARI by 19 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

STL

Maurice Alexander S Out Groin
Eugene Sims DE Out Knee
Chase Reynolds RB Doubtful Knee
Benny Cunningham RB Probable Knee
Kenny Britt WR Probable Shoulder
James Laurinaitis LB Probable Not Injury Related

ARI

J.J. Nelson WR Out Shoulder
Andre Ellington RB Questionable Knee
John Brown WR Probable Shoulder
Mike Iupati G Probable Knee
Alex Okafor LB Probable Shoulder
LaMarr Woodley LB Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 24
–
ARI 22

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:31 TD LA (13:31) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 11-T.Austin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 04:18 FG ARI (4:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. STL 7 – ARI 3
  • Q2 10:50 FG ARI (10:50) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. STL 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 03:21 FG LA (3:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 10 – ARI 6
  • Q2 01:18 FG ARI (1:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. STL 10 – ARI 9
  • Q3 05:53 TD LA (5:53) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass deep right to 12-S.Bailey for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 16 – ARI 9
  • Q3 01:19 FG ARI (1:19) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. STL 17 – ARI 12
  • Q4 12:02 FG ARI (12:02) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. STL 17 – ARI 15
  • Q4 08:23 TD LA (8:23) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle to 11-T.Austin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 23 – ARI 15
  • Q4 04:44 TD ARI (4:44) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 31-D.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 24 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 9 yards (53-D.Bates).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to ARI 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (10:50) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to ARI 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 17 for 9 yards (15-B.Marquez).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (3:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (1:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 23 for 2 yards (38-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (10:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (1:19) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 48 for no gain (50-C.Lynch).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 96%

    (12:02) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 71%

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to LA 19 for 14 yards (22-T.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 37 for 12 yards (38-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 46%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 31-D.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →