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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to ARI 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 17 for 9 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model