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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.33 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP