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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP