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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to ARI 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model