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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model